Is Now a Good Time to Buy in Plano, Frisco, or McKinney?

It can be, if the monthly payment works for your budget. North Texas prices are correcting after the run-up that followed COVID, and Collin County home values are down from a year ago. But the 30-year mortgage rate averaged 7.40% on October 8, 2026, up from 6.30% a year earlier, so your payment, not the headline price, should drive the decision.

Buyers moving to North Texas ask me some version of this question constantly: prices are slipping, rates are climbing, so should I buy now or wait? As a REALTOR® with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices PenFed Realty Texas, I tell them the answer depends on your payment, your timeline, and which city and price point you are buying in. Plano, Frisco, and McKinney do not move together.

• Zillow data reported by the Dallas Express showed Collin County's average home value at $485,017 as of March 31, 2026, down 6.1% from the year before.
• A North Texas market report for the 30 days ending September 15, 2026 (Collin, Grayson, Fannin, and Denton counties) found about 9% fewer closed sales, a median sold price about 2% lower, and median days on market improving from 37 to 35 compared with the same period last year.

Plano is a good example of what is happening: after years of fast gains, prices are correcting. I think of it as the market settling back after the COVID run-up, not a collapse. A median reflects the mix of homes that closed. It describes a month of sales across every price and condition. It does not predict what your specific home will do.

So how do you use citywide numbers for one home? Start with comparable sales: homes of similar size, age, and condition that closed in the same area in roughly the last 90 days. Then look at how long the home has been listed and whether the price has already changed. A home that has sat for several weeks gives you more negotiating room than one that hit the market Thursday. The citywide median is the backdrop, and the comps are the evidence.

Falling prices sound like a green light. Rising rates can cancel that out. Here is a simple example, using principal and interest only.

Say you buy a $500,000 home with 20% down. On a $400,000 loan, the payment at 7.40% is about $2,770 a month. At last year's 6.30%, the same loan would have been about $2,476, roughly $294 a month less.

Now say a comparable home sells for 6% less, at $470,000. With 20% down, that is a $376,000 loan, and the payment at 7.40% is about $2,603. The lower price brings the payment back down by about $167 a month. These are illustrative numbers, not a quote, and taxes, insurance, and any HOA, MUD, or PID charges come on top.

Insurance is worth pricing early. The Zebra's estimate, updated May 13, 2026, puts the average homeowners policy in Plano at about $268 a month, roughly $3,216 a year. Hail damage has pushed insurance costs up across North Texas, and your quote depends on the home's age, roof, coverage, and deductible.

When I guide clients through this, we do not start with the market. We start with these.

1. Can you comfortably afford the full payment at today's rate? That means principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and any association or district charges, with cash reserves left over.
2. How long will you stay? A longer timeline gives you more time to ride out price swings. A short one makes any market riskier.
3. Is your move on a deadline? A job start date or an expiring lease changes the math. Waiting has a cost too, in rent and in the chance that prices or rates move against you.
4. Which city and price point are you in? The correction is not even. Each city, neighborhood, and price band behaves differently.
5. Are you using every tool in the contract? Buyers can negotiate price, repairs after the option period inspection, seller concessions, and, on new construction, builder incentives such as rate buydowns. None of it is automatic, and all of it is negotiated in the contract.

When you negotiate, think in terms of total cost, not just the list price. A seller-paid credit, a rate buydown on new construction, or repairs completed after your inspection can each be worth as much as a price cut. Which one fits you depends on your loan and your cash on hand, so ask your lender to price the options before you write the offer.

Two practical notes. Before you tour homes in Texas, you will sign a written buyer representation agreement, so read it and ask questions. And in Texas, your title company handles the closing, including taxes, prorations, and fees, so your final numbers come from them.

If you are buying from out of state, add one more question: how will you see the home? I plan recorded video tours of the houses, the streets, and the routes to work, so by the time you arrive you already know what you like. Your inspection during the option period still matters.

I start with a conversation about your work, schools, schedule, and how you want to live. Then you check what you can comfortably afford with a local lender. From there I pull the comparable sales for the specific streets and price points on your list, so you are looking at evidence, not headlines, and I tell you plainly where there is room to negotiate and where there is not. If you are relocating, I plan your tours and your pre-planning trip around your timeline. You can call early. You do not need to have everything figured out, and there is no pressure to buy before you are ready.

Are home prices dropping in Plano, Frisco, and McKinney?

Prices across Collin County are lower than a year ago. Zillow data reported by the Dallas Express showed the county's average home value down 6.1% as of March 31, 2026. Medians reflect the mix of homes that sold, so your price point and neighborhood can differ from the countywide number.

Should I wait for mortgage rates to come down?

Nobody can time rates reliably. Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.40% on October 8, 2026, compared with 6.30% a year earlier. Weigh the cost of waiting, such as rent and possible price changes, against buying now and considering a refinance if rates fall later. A refinance is not guaranteed and has its own costs.

Can I negotiate the price of a home in this market?

Often, yes. The market has shifted toward buyers compared with a year ago. How much room you have depends on the home, its condition, and how long it has been listed. You can also negotiate repairs and seller concessions.

Do I need to sign an agreement with an agent before touring homes in Texas?

A written buyer representation agreement is standard before showing homes. It spells out the services you will receive. Read it carefully and ask your agent to walk you through any part that is not clear.

Whether now is a good time comes down to your payment, your timeline, and the specific home. If you are weighing this decision for your own move, book a free consultation with Amy Jacobs. We will walk through your situation, and afterward I will send you a guide matched to what you are planning, whether that is relocating to DFW, buying new construction, or buying your first home. See also Plano, Frisco, and McKinney real estate.

This article is general information, not legal, tax, or financial advice. Figures come from the sources listed and reflect the dates shown; markets and rates change. Payment examples are illustrative. Talk with your lender and a qualified professional about your situation.

• Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey (October 8, 2026)
• Dallas Express, Frisco, Plano, Prosper Homes: 6.1% Value Decline Hits Collin County Market (May 11, 2026; Zillow data through March 31, 2026)
• Your Texas Dream, 30 Day Market Report, Collin/Grayson/Fannin/Denton (30 days ending September 15, 2026)
• The Zebra, Homeowners Insurance in Plano, TX (updated May 13, 2026)

Amy Jacobs, ABR®, GRI, MRP, PSA, RENE, "Amy 'Rockstar' Jacobs," Relocation Specialist with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices PenFed Realty Texas, serving Plano, Frisco, Prosper, and Celina. D Magazine Best in D (2023, 2024, 2025) and D Magazine Best Real Estate Agent (2026). 800+ families served, including an estimated 600+ relocations. Call or text 214-529-2641. Texas license 0638764.